Essays

When the International Court of Justice in the Hague decided on January 26 not to issue an injunction to stop Israel’s war in Gaza, Israel’s media saw a temporary legal victory. However, the court did not dismiss South Africa’s claim of genocide. Rather it required Israel to report within 30 days on its compliance with […]

Poland’s democratic transition is proving to be turbulent and challenging.  The liberal center-right government led by Donald Tusk took office on December 13, 2023, after eight years of rule by “Law and Justice,” a nationalist right-wing party. The new government’s reform efforts face the kind of domestic opposition that may pose the biggest threat to […]

In January 2018, I traveled via armored convoy over 20 kilometers of bad roads from a regional airport to the Hirshabelle provincial state capital of Jowar in central Somalia. Protected by Burundian soldiers of the African Union peacekeeping force, we sped through countryside and villages controlled by the al-Shabaab terror group. In Jowar, the UN […]

Twice in the last fifty years, Israel sustained surprise attacks on a major scale. In the first instance, in October 1973, the IDF failed in fulfilling its mission of defending Israel’s frontiers, but partially compensated for this failure later in the war. Fifty years later, in October 2023, the IDF failed in an irreversible way […]

One lesson of the Russo-Ukraine War is the growing role played by private corporations, both through participation in or circumvention of economic sanctions and business decision-making that directly affects the course of the fighting. 

Cyberspace has become a major domain for organized crime as well as for statecraft in the twenty-first century. Israel has become a top global cyber power. But cyber offense is no silver bullet.  What Is a Cyber-Attack?  A senior JPMorgan executive made headlines at the recent Davos gathering: “people are trying to hack into JPMorgan […]

With support from Europe, the United States, and others, Ukraine has held off – and in part, beaten back – Russia’s campaign of conquest and subjugation. But Ukraine has not won, Putin seems determined to fight on, and the West seems beset by doubts as to whether continuing to back Ukraine is practical or worth […]

Self-deterrence is a defense concept that a state may be restrained from using its military power not by the fear of a counter strike but rather owing to reputational concerns arising from moral, legal or other considerations. This concept may partly explain US reluctance to escalate the current level of military conflict with Iran, though […]

When the war broke out in Gaza, observers made a number of comparisons to the challenges faced by the US-backed anti-ISIS coalition in the battle of Mosul. I was in northern Iraq when it began in October 2016, and I covered the battles leading up to the liberation of the old city of Mosul in March and April 2017. […]

Once upon a time, violent turmoil in the Middle East would spike oil prices, sending the global energy markets and the economies of industrial countries into disarray. This was the case of the 1973 Arab-Israel war, when Middle East oil producers deployed an oil embargo, shifted the balance of market power from buyers to sellers […]

As the war approaches the end of its second year, unless some dramatic development occurs to shift current trends – for instance, a collapse of NATO support for Ukraine or the death of Putin – it seems that the war is a long way from being decided or brought to an end. Initial lessons on […]

On December 28, five Palestinian factions announced an agreement to form a unity government. The five included two Islamist organizations (Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad) and three small Marxist pan-Arab member groups of the PLO (led by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine). All five are committed to military resistance against Israel. This announcement, […]